AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Showing Slight Losses at Midday

Corn futures are fractionally lower in most nearby contracts on Friday. Total corn export commitments as of 9/12 were just 17% of the USDA projection vs. the normal 27% pace for this time of year. The total 8.65 MMT in shipped and unshipped sales is the lowest since 2005/06 for the second week in the MY. A trade delegation from Taiwan signed a Memorandum of Understanding with purchase commitments of 5 MMT of corn and 500,000 MT of DDGs over the next 2 years. That is on the high side of their historical annual MY range of purchases from the US.

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.72, down 3/4 cent,

MAR 19 Corn is at $3.83 1/2, down 1/2 cent,

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.91 1/4, down 1/2 cent

JUL 20 Corn is at $3.96 3/4, down 3/4 cent

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Lower on Friday

Soybeans futures are down 8 to 9 cents in the front months at midday. Soybean meal is down 70 cents/ton, with soy oil 46 points lower. Chinese trade negotiators were in DC on Thursday to lay groundwork for the higher-level talks in October. On Friday, President Trump indicated that Chinese purchases of US ag goods alone would not be enough in order to get a deal done. The total of combined shipped and unshipped soybean export sales is now 23% of the full year USDA export projection vs. the 40% average. At 11.18 MMT, they are the smallest for week 2 of the new MY since 08/09.

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.84 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.97 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $9.10, down 8 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans are at $9.20 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

OCT 19 Soybean Meal is at $291.50, down $0.70,

OCT 19 Soybean Oil is at $29.35, down $0.46

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Mixed at Midday

Wheat futures are steady to 3 cents lower in the winter wheat contracts, with MPLS 5 to 8 cents higher. You will recall that the managed money spec funds have held a record large short position in MPLS wheat for the past several weeks. Export commitments for 2019/20 wheat are still 20.4% larger than they were at this time last year. They are 46% of the USDA projected total, with the normal pace showing 52% complete at this point in the year. Russia’s IKAR left their 2019 wheat production estimate at 75 MMT, which compares to the USDA at 72.5 MMT. EU wheat production is seen at 143.3 MMT for 2019 according to Coceral, a 3 MMT jump from their prior number.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.84 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.09 1/2, unch,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.28, up 7 3/4 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Mostly Lower on Friday

Live cattle futures are down 20 to 65 cents in the front months at midday. Feeder cattle futures are 27.5 to 40 cents higher in the nearby contracts, with back months lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down 4 cents on September 17 at $137.29. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday morning, with the Chc/Sel spread tightening to $24.58. Choice boxes were down 90 cents at $217.27, with Select boxes 53 cents higher at $192.69. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday @ 467,000 head. That is down 3,000 head from the same week last year but a 5,000 rise from the previous week. Cash trade was mostly $101 in the South on Thursday, with a few bids of $102 in the North appearing at midday. NASS will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report this afternoon, with September 1 on feed numbers seen at 11.05 million head, down 0.7% from last year.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $99.600, down $0.200,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $105.175, down $0.650,

FEB 20 Cattle are at $112.075, down $0.450,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $140.400, up $0.450

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $139.200, up $0.275

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $136.950, down $0.300

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Mixed at Midday

Lean Hog futures are down 30 to 80 cents in most contracts, with Oct up 22.5 cents. The exodus ahead of expiration has begun in earnest, with October OI dropping. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 44 cents at $56.32 on September 18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up $1.44 on Friday morning at $70.46. Most of the strength came from the belly primal, up $11.30. The national average base hog value was down 37 cents at $43.99 on Friday. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.951 million head through Thursday. That was well above the same week in 2018 and 8,000 head above last week.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $61.625, up $0.225,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $67.150, down $0.800

FEB 20 Hogs are at $74.350, down $0.700

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Marginally Mixed on Friday

Cotton futures are 3 to 8 points higher in the front months, with deferred contracts slightly lower. Export commitments of shipped and unshipped upland cotton sales are now 55% of USDA’s projected 19/20 total. That is above the 54% average pace but down from 68% for the same time last year. Thursday’s Cotton On-Call report showed mills with unfixed call sales of 23,888 contracts as of 9/13, with unfixed call purchases at 38,610 MT. The Cotlook A Index was down 90 points on September 19 at 71.50 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 54.62, effective through next Thursday. That is up 2.34 cents from the previous week.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 59.02, up 3 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 60.4, up 7 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 61.14, up 8 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 61.96, down 12 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com