European Commodity Winners 

Zinc Special HG Cash (Q4Y00), +6.64%

The zinc market shifted from a slight surplus in early 2024 to an estimated 164 kt deficit, and forecasts now expect a return to surplus (~93 kt) in 2025, driven by mine supply increases and soft demand from China, as per Reuters.

Tight inventories are supportive of prices, yet the lack of visible supply hasn’t ignited a strong rally – likely due to bearish sentiment among investors.

The market is in contango with higher futures prices until September 2026, so traders are betting on higher prices in the next 12 months.

Technically zinc is in a clear uptrend with prices fast rising above the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs with increased volatility. This is not a liquid market and follows closely the move in copper (O9N25). LME stock levels continue to decline from approximately 141,375 t on May 29 to around 119,225 t by June 27. There are reports that stock concentrations are high with 80%-90% of LME zinc stocks owned by a single party, hinting at reduced market transparency that could potentially cause sharp reversals.

Cocoa #7 (CAU25), +6.42%

Stock damage was reported in Ivory Coast and Ghana due to diseases and aging plantations. The excessive rainfall and crop damage has provided support to prices recently. 

Having said that, Brazil is harvesting a large Robusta crop and SDA projects Vietnam’s 2025-26 Robusta output rising by 6.9% to 31 million bags. These fundamentals will likely limit the current upward direction.

Technicals: Cocoa found its support at 5,350, marking a turning point on June 20 and starting an uptrend. Prices are rising but locked between the 10 and 20 EMAs. Only a breakout to the upside from the 50 EMA will confirm the starting uptrend. Long traders have a chance now if fundamentals will help.

The 14-day RSI (45.57) is in neutral territory and has lot more to go if the current direction will evolve into a full trend.

Copper Grade (P0Y00), +2.54%

LME inventories fell to a two-year low from roughly 94,675 t on June 24 to 91,275 on June 27, down approximately 65% since early 2025. Record-low inventories and steep backwardation reflect current physical tightness. Reuters reports that U.S. tariffs and diverted flows have pulled metal away from LME warehouses into the U.S., thus driving supply scarcity. This is confirmed by the “backwardation” of the forward curve until the middle of 2026, all marking short-term tight supply.

The technicals show an uptrend with current prices above the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs but caution as it is fast approaching “overbought” conditions. The RSI marks 64.83 and recent values at 70 have produced turning points. We see in the last 12 months that prices have respected a strong resistance at 10,100 and support at 8,900 with only one failure in April 2024. Copper is likely to test again 10,100 and traders should be closely watching this key level. Expect heavy selling there. Wise traders will add to long position once a breakout is fully established.

European Commodity Losers

Dutch TTF Gas (TGQ25), -18.75% 

Robust gas imports – including pipeline and LNG – along with high production, have kept supply ample. European Union gas storage sits over 52% full, easing concerns and weighing on prices. The end of the Northern Hemisphere heating season and mild weather have led to reduced residential and industrial consumption. In Europe, ample storage, steady supply, and moderated industrial demand suggest limited room for rallies.

Prices have crashed in the last 5 sessions and Dutch TTF gas is now trading well below the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs. The 14-day RSI marks 37.9 and might soon hit the “oversold” 30 level. This presents a good opportunity as it has been a very reliable long entry for swing traders.

Crude Oil Brent (CBU25), -6.20% 

Over the past two weeks, all of the fundamentals for Brent were news driven. Global supply in May reached roughly 105 mb/d, up ~330 kb/d from April and nearly 1.8 mb/d above last year, aided by the easing of some OPEC+ cuts. The EIA projects an overall 2025 supply growth of ~1.2 mb/d, driving inventories higher. The market remains well-supplied, with inventory accumulation continuing. Demand is growing, but is not robust enough to match rising supply.

The ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict has brought prices back to the pre-conflict level around 65. Brent is currently trading below the 10, 20 and 50 EMAs. Given the technicals and fundamental background, if the Middle East conflict remains under control, bear positions will have an edge.